After three years of the devastating war in Ukraine what lessons has the West learned? ⬇️

IM—1776 magazine has a thought provoking op-ed on three key lessons from the Ukraine War that is well worth a read:

“Wars are easy to start but often difficult to finish, and combatants tend to get more than they bargained for. Humanity has relearned this lesson in Ukraine. Furthermore, despite the presence of sophisticated weapons systems and precision strike capabilities, warfare seems to have returned to a form that resembles the twentieth-century world wars, with a massive industrial base feeding gigantic armies… The lesson is clear: Big War is back.”

Large scale combat operations consume weapons and equipment at a rate that the post cold war I industrial base cannot easily replace. The arsenal of democracy has withered to a concentrated market the classic characteristics of an oligopoly. What has resulted is a Defence Industry that is not keeping pace with Russia, let alone the Arc of Autocracy:

“US-backed forces might expect to use air power as a partial substitute for ground-based howitzers and rocketry, but the math here is similarly discouraging. In August of 2024, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense tallied a total of 9,590 missiles and 14,000 drones launched by Russia since the start of the war. By comparison, American production of the venerable Tomahawk missile sputters along at around 100 per year. The Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff missile shows better numbers at a rate of 550 each year, but this is still far short of Russian totals.”

The fact that three years on Russia can still outproduce the US and EU combined in the consumables of combat is a damning indictment on our collective readiness in the most dangerous geopolitical circumstances since WWII. Australia needs more sovereign capability and capacity – fewer supply chains that are constrained with dependence on offshore manufacturers. We need surety of supply and to add capacity to the Arsenal of Democracy, not just take from the same constrained assembly lines our Allies rely on too.

The Defence Tech revolution will not have all the answers but the more start-ups and dual use manufacturers that seek to disrupt the status quo the better. Australia and the West in general cannot simply go to the same Primes with a wrapped in red tape acquisition process and expect a different result. Time to put the best facets of the Democratic model to work and leverage the creative capitalism of the private sector in full. Let’s disrupt, innovate and rebuild the Arsenal of Democracy.

Food for thought!

📸 from Reuters Photography Gallery